Tuesday, August 20News That Matters

BIG MARLEY’S UFC ON ESPN+7 DRAFTKINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN

This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card at Russia. DraftKings has some solid competitions for us to acquire a lot of money from this week considering it’s a smaller card and begins at 10:15am ET. The main GPP is a $15 buy and $25k belongs to 1st place with a total of 100k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they’ll compete for a $50k first place cost and $175k will be distributed between all 100 entries that qualify. I will try to receive my 2nd and 3rd seats this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be actual bankroll suckers therefore be cautious chasing those too hard. I’ll likely stick to the top GPP this week and throw 100 or so entries at the $25k prize, and then I will probably take a few shots in the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to receive a good amount of drama into cash games.
With that said, let’s get to a couple plays I enjoy this week Together with my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of this week — Roxanne Modafferi — $6,900
I don’t think there are really no cash locks nowadays, so I needed to bring up a money strategy I use a lot of the time, which is punting in cash and accepting a reduction. I don’t think Roxy gets the win here, but she is only $6.9k and I think she receives 15-minutes of action. I like the flooring which accompanies that and punting with her cheap cost enables us to fit in a lot of the favorites that are higher with our other 5 spots. We do not want 6 wins in cash games, so I don’t think we need to try for it. I like playing money games if I can lock 25-35 points at a reduction from Roxy at her cheap price I am totally okay with that. I always look for 4 wins in money and above 350-400 DK points. That’s my goal every week. Let everyone else make the errors and only shoot for a score that may beat 50 percent or more of this field.
GPP drama of the week — Alistair Overeem — $8,900
This really is an all-in fight for GPPs in my view and I enjoy Overeem among my top plays of the week. Oleinik took this fight on short notice so I would be shocked to see this go all 5 rounds. I also believe Overeem will be too quick for him to get takedowns, and Overeem is levels before him at the game that is spectacular. The only shot Oleinik has of winning on the feet would be by landing a haymaker and knocking Overeem out. Or, get a standing entry. Besides those two results, Overeem will smoke him on the toes. In addition, I believe Overeem will work his way back into his toes if he’s removed and the longer Oleinik shoots for takedowns the faster he will gas out. I like the -175 ITD lineup which is included with Overeem here and I think he gets a complete in round 1 or 2. That should give us close to 100 DK points if not more, and I want that in lots of my GPP lineups.
Underdog drama of the week — Rafael Fiziev — $7,700
Fiziev is no longer the underdog on the betting line (-120) however DraftKings salaries don’t change as soon as they’re released. We receive Fiziev here for 800 less costly than Mustafaev and he’s favored to get the win. I was very impressed with what I saw from this kid and I concur with the line motion. I do think he gets the win here, but it’s the DK value that we want to make certain to find exposure to the weekend. I think he’s a great play cash games with the current price and I hope to be obese on him in GPPs too. We have to roster underdogs in our lineups and if we could use a popular as one of those”underdogs” I am usually on board for it.
Fade of this week — Antonina Shevchenko ($9,300)
Antonina Shevchenko is my fade of the week for her $9.3k price tag. I really do think she has the win here as I said earlier, I just don’t see the way she’ll pay off that salary without a finish. I don’t see her shooting for any takedowns in this match, and I do not wish to rely on her getting knockdown points . So, we’re only likely to be getting 0.5 points per significant strike, and the 30-point win bonus if she wins a decision. If this is true, we’d want her to property over 126 sig strikes simply to get more than 10x value. I don’t see that being true and that I believe she more likely scores 80-85 DK points at a decision win. At her salary, that will not win anyone the large $25k. That’s the prize I’m shooting so that is why she is my fade of the week.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight about the card and give my complete DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all my pick predictions, then you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link as well. I’m 69-41 to get +237.39u (+$23,739) because May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)

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